Personal and small-business finance analysis

The real example

Actual Budget exports + Chronos-2 forecasting

Actual is an open-source, local-first personal finance app that imports bank files. Once transactions are on disk, a local language model can categorise them and answer questions, and a time-series foundation model can forecast. AutoGluon's tutorial shows Chronos-2 forecasting zero-shot, without training on your data, and fine-tuning when you want more accuracy. On GIFT-Eval, our calculation from the published results files puts Chronos-2 at 0.698 MASE relative to a seasonal-naive baseline (lower is better), with TimesFM 2.5 at 0.705.

Sources: Actual Budget on GitHub · Actual Budget: importing transactions · AutoGluon: forecasting with Chronos-2 · GIFT-Eval results

Why run it locally

Bank statements are among the most sensitive data you have. Forecasting models are tiny and run on a CPU.